A quick glance at consensus Dynasty wide receiver rankings shows Goerge Pickens as one of the biggest risers of the offseason, up to WR27. I agree with the sentiment, but I do not believe it has gone far enough. I have Pickens ranked as my WR18 in the update below and I see a real possibility Pickens vaults into top 12 by October. That is, assuming the Steelers don't trade for DK Metcalf any time soon.
Pickens is still just 23 years old and delivered 63 catches for 1,140 yards and five touchdowns in his second season in the league. That alone makes him a prime candidate for a Year 3 breakout. But it doesn't capture the best case for Pickens. That starts with his league-leading 18.1 yards per reception last year, and that's just the start. His 10.2 yards per target is the fourth-best mark amongst players with at least 150 targets the past two seasons. The only three receivers with a better mark are Brandon Aiyuk, Jaylen Waddle, and Tyreek Hill.
While his target numbers haven't been great, Pickens did average 8.2 targets per game in four games last year without Diontae Johnson. He also averaged 92.8 yards per game in that stretch. Johnson is now a Carolina Panther and so far Roman Wilson looks like his replacement. If Pickens enters 2024 as the team's clear No. 1 wide receiver, like he is now, and he starts the year like he did last year, Pickens could easily vault into the top 12 wide receivers in all formats.
This brings us back to the trade rumors. If the Broncos trade for Courtland Sutton, my stance on Pickens wouldn't really change that much. If they trade for Metcalf it's going to have a negative impact on the Dynasty ranking of Pickens, and and a positive impact on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. As you'll see below, Smith-Njigba is currently ranked at WR29, his lowest ranking since he entered the NFL. He would vault into the top 20 if Metcalf is dealt, with Pickens moving past him the other direction.
What is more difficult to measure is what impact a Metcalf trade would have on his Dynasty value. I currently have him two spots behind Pickens and nine spots ahead of Smith-Njigba. Metcalf would reunite in Pittsburgh with his former quarterback Russell Wilson, but at this stage of his career I'm not sure that is actually a positive. All three of these receivers feel like fairly volatile assets in Dynasty leagues for the time being. They're all ranked well behind Marvin Harrison and Malik Nabers but right in the mix with Rome Odunze, Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr., and Ladd McConkey.
Here are my updated Dynasty wide receiver rankings:
