In this space, Scott White will highlight some of the more notable changes to his rest-of-season rankings. You'll find said rankings here and are urged to bookmark them if you haven't already. There's no better resource for gauging player value throughout the long season.
A certain reality dawned on me in this latest round of rankings updates: Starting pitcher has been a standout position so far. I keep finding pitchers to move up without having pitchers to move down, such that the 50-60 range now looks how I imagine the 30-40 range should look. Shoot, several pitchers who I basically consider must-roster have been pushed out of the top 70, even.
It's not what I thought we were getting. The indistinguishable mass of mediocrity that was supposed to dominate the starting pitcher position -- otherwise known as The Glob -- has been displaced by an indistinguishable mass of intrigue. Further investigation reveals that offense is down, even by April standards (it's usually the worst month for offense), and while I'm not totally convinced it's going to be a year-long trend, the long and short of it is that I like way too many pitchers right now.
And I'll admit to having some difficulty knowing how to rank them all. For instance, I've been a vocal backer of Jack Flaherty since spring training, believing that the Tigers have rebuilt him into the pitcher he was in his earliest years with the Cardinals even if his ERA suggests otherwise. So you'd think that after his 14-strikeout effort Wednesday, one of the most dominant outings for any pitcher this year, I'd find a way to move him into my top 30. But even top 40 was a stretch, and looking at it now, I wouldn't say I'm totally comfortable having him ahead of Jose Berrios and Hunter Greene.
In short, the amount of upheaval you're seeing in the starting pitcher rankings each week may overstate the amount my feelings have changed for any particular pitcher. It's just too much quality for too few spots.
Starting pitcher
- I've finally caved and moved George Kirby into my top 10, which is where most people had him from the beginning. His 12-strikeout effort last time out had something to do with it, but it's just as much about Logan Webb struggling to miss bats and Aaron Nola still failing to keep the ball in the yard. Webb just got his comeuppance Wednesday, and I worry that Nola's is coming soon. (I say "worry," but they're both still top-15 pitchers for me).
- But wait, hasn't Logan Gilbert been just as good, if not better? Yes, and I've also moved him ahead of Webb an Nola (though still not ahead of Kirby).
- With so many exciting pitchers emerging, it's hard for reliable innings-eater types to hold their place in the rankings. I mostly have faith in Chris Bassitt, Mitch Keller and Joe Musgrove still, but given that their best isn't exactly ace-caliber, I can't continue to value them over the flashier Nick Lodolo and Bryce Miller types. Bassitt has slipped to 43rd in my rankings, with Keller and Musgrove falling to 47th and 51st, respectively. That's a drop of about 15-20 spots for each, and lest you think it's just recency bias given that none has performed up to expectations yet, allow me to point out that Jose Berrios has tumbled down the rankings with them, coming in at 41st now. Clearly, he's done nothing wrong. I suspect I'll be moving all four of these pitchers up a fair amount once attrition kicks in.
- I've dropped Grayson Rodriguez behind Chris Sale and Framber Valdez, and I'm tempted to keep going. He's been decent enough, but the walks have been high and I'm still not convinced he has the sort of wipeout pitch that will transform him into an ace. Other young pitchers who I rank 10 and 20 spots behind him have impressed me more, let's just say.
- I've played the skeptic on Shota Imanaga long enough. He's up to 31st, just ahead of Bailey Ober, and I think the two profile similarly (with Imanaga perhaps offering more strikeout upside).
- If there's one starting pitcher who I had no trouble moving down, it's Michael King, whose track record in this role boils down to an eight-start stretch at the end of last season in which he wasn't even working all that deep into games. He's issuing far too many walks and allowing far too many home runs, and I'm not seeing enough reason for optimism to keep him in my top 75.
- Paul Skenes went six innings in his latest start at Triple-A, and it's time to take the possibility of his promotion seriously. He's moved into my top 75, ahead of pitchers like Jon Gray and Charlie Morton. Actual word of his promotion might move him up another 40 spots.
- Alek Manoah has climbed to 99th and John Means to 109th after dominating in their latest rehab outings, putting them on track to rejoin the big-league rotation. It's not a ringing endorsement for either, but it's an acknowledgment that they're not totally off my radar.
Relief pitcher
- Jhoan Duran is back from the IL and just notched his first save Wednesday, so into my top 10 he goes. Most people had him inside the top five prior to him straining his oblique in spring training, and I don't think there's a clear next-in-line after Edwin Diaz, Josh Hader, Emmanuel Clase (among true relievers, by which I mean no Cole Ragans). I'd prefer to play things cautiously for now, though.
- Mason Miller is finally eligible at relief pitcher, and he may be as talented as anyone at the position. I've slotted him just inside my top 15 for now, behind Ryan Helsley and Alexis Diaz, but it sounds kind of stupid as I write it. I don't know. Maybe he should be that No. 4 after Diaz, Hader and Clase. I guess I worry that the Athletics aren't actually the third-place team they've been so far and will struggle to provide him chances in the long run. It's also worth pointing out that his injury history is quite terrible.
- David Bednar's continued struggles have led to him taking quite a tumble with so many other closers looking rock solid right now. I've dropped him behind Clay Holmes, Robert Suarez and Kirby Yates, though I still have him ahead of Jason Foley and Andres Munoz, who are both limited by funny usage.
- Last week, I mentioned the Mets' Reed Garrett as a middle relief standout who doesn't appear on the rankings page because he's outside my top 40 relievers. This week, I moved the Reds' Fernando Cruz right alongside him.
Outfield
- You're probably wondering where Mike Trout should rank with the news of him needing surgery to address a torn meniscus, and the truth is it's impossible to say with any confidence right now. Depending on the type of procedure he has, he could be sidelined from one to three months. I've ranked him in anticipation of a six-week timetable, which keeps him in my top 25 at a weak position, but I'll more likely need to adjust down than up as more details emerge.
- Outfield has been the center of recent call-up news as well, with Joey Loperfido and Jordan Beck coming up just in the past couple of days. They're back to back in my rankings (slight edge to Loperfido), with both placing just inside the top 60. As I've said before, they're must-add in five-outfielder leagues, but you can probably wait and see in three-outfielder leagues. The upside is there for both, but there are drawbacks as well.
- I recently said on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast that I'd prefer to pick up Loperfido over Jo Adell just because the hype surrounding Loperfido's arrival makes for more urgency, but I've changed my mind. I'm so encouraged by the strides Adell has made with his contact rate that I'm ranking him ahead Loperfido rest of season. He's not quite in my top 50 yet, with category specialists like Giancarlo Stanton and Esteury Ruiz still ranking higher, but in leagues where it pays to sell out for upside, you should go for Adell instead (and also Andy Pages, who I rank one spot higher).
- I've gone ahead and dropped Corbin Carroll behind Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez, which isn't to say I'm abandoning ship, but better safe than sorry, right?
- Jackson Chourio is losing the benefit of the doubt for me. I'm discouraged by both the quantity and quality of the contact he's making, and I wonder if a demotion could be in store. I still have him 30th in Rotisserie leagues, but I've dropped him behind names like Tyler O'Neill and Steven Kwan.
- Speaking of Kwan, the Guardians encouraged him to swing harder this year, and he's indeed barreling the ball more. The usual exit velocity indicators appear unchanged, so I may just be buying into the narrative, but given how weak outfield is, I so want Kwan's hot start to be legitimate. He's up about 15 spots in both formats, which puts him inside the top 30 in Rotisserie and inside the top 15 in Head-to-Head points, where his lack of strikeouts already made him a standout.
- TJ Friedl, who fractured his wrist in spring training, is gearing up for a rehab assignment, so I've moved him up about 15 spots, putting him just outside the top 40.
Catcher
- There's a new No. 1 at catcher, and you may be wondering what took me so long given that William Contreras was No. 1 last year, too, at least in Rotisserie leagues. He's been so much better than Adley Rutschman and everyone else at the position this year that, yeah, it seems like a fairly obvious move. I had wondered if he might lose playing time this year with the offseason addition of Gary Sanchez, but in fact, Contreras has started every game for the Brewers so far, shifting to DH on the days he doesn't catch.
- I've also reached the point where I can no longer talk myself out of Salvador Perez at No. 4, behind the obvious top three of Contreras, Rutschman and Will Smith. That goes for both scoring formats even though Rotisserie is generally considered Perez's better one.
- Playing time no longer appears to be an issue for the Twins' Ryan Jeffers, who broke out last year and has greatly reduced his strikeout rate this year. He climbs all the way to 13th, ahead of preseason favorites Mitch Garver and Bo Naylor.
First base
- No, I'm not moving Matt Olson off the No. 2 spot. He'll be fine.
- I may have been overzealous in moving Michael Busch up to 14th at the height of his hot streak. Now that he's cooled off, I've sobered up enough to drop him to 20th, which makes him still an obvious choice to roster in leagues with an extra corner infield spot to fill. Among the players I've moved him behind are Alec Bohm, Rhys Hoskins and Isaac Paredes, who have certainly pulled their weight so far, but I've also moved him behind Spencer Torkelson and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who have not (but will ... I think).
- Luis Arraez picked up first base eligibility over the past week, so I've added him to the position. He comes in 23rd, which is shockingly low given that he's 12th at second base, but I think it speaks to the relative depth (or lack thereof) at each position.
Second base
- Jackson Holliday's demotion (which was well-earned) drops him from 12th to 19th in my second base rankings (a bit lower at shortstop), placing him right between two others who we won't be seeing for a while, Zack Gelof and Tommy Edman. Of course, Gelof's and Edman's absences are due to injury, but it hopefully gives you some idea of the sort of leagues where I'd be stashing Holliday still. Obviously, my confidence in him has shaken, but I'm not ruling out his return to the majors going much better.
- For as well as Jake Cronenworth has performed so far, I'm kind of thinking even better days are ahead given that his xBA, xSLG and xwOBA on Statcast are all 90th percentile or better. His plate discipline makes him a better fit for points leagues, and I've moved him into the top 15 there. He's still behind Bryson Stott, Thairo Estrada and Ryan McMahon in Rotisserie.
Third base
- Jeimer Candelario continues to sink like a stone. I've moved him outside of my top 20 at third base and toward the back end of my top 30 at first base. It's still possible he could turn things around and deliver the career-best numbers we had hoped for in his first year in Cincinnati, but his strikeout rate is through the roof and he hasn't come close to matching his max exit velocities from years past. Give me Ryan McMahon or Maikel Garcia (at least in Rotisserie leagues) instead.
- Ranking just behind Candelario now is Tyler Black, the latest call-up for the Brewers. His minor-league numbers have been terrific the past two years, with his on-base percentage and stolen base contributions standing out in particular. Most reports indicate that the power he's delivered there is mostly a mirage, though. It remains to be seen if he'll play every day, too, as is often the case for left-handed hitters.
Shortstop
- Mookie Betts was always ahead of Bobby Witt for me in Head-to-Head points leagues, but I've moved him ahead in Rotisserie as well. Obviously, Betts has been the better of the two so far, but it's still a major concession given that Witt was my No. 2 overall player in that format and has himself performed well. The decider for me is that Betts appears to have regained his aptitude for stealing bases, trailing Witt by only one (nine to eight) so far.
- I mentioned last week that I'd like to find a way to move Jeremy Pena up given the improvements he's made with his strikeout rate and launch angle, and I went ahead and took the plunge this week, moving him ahead of Carlos Correa and Thairo Estrada, among others.
